UK house prices see sharp tumble

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UK house prices see sharp tumble
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Treacodactyl
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Joined: 28 Oct 2004
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Location: Jumping on the bandwagon of opportunism

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 8:59 am Post subject: UK house prices see sharp tumble

https://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7118336.stm

BBC wrote:

UK house prices saw their biggest fall in 12 years during November, mortgage lender Nationwide has said.

The firm's data showed that the cost of an average home slid by 0.8% from a month earlier - the first drop in price seen since February last year.

I know it's just one months numbers and some of the previous reports have showed a more subtle cooling but something to watch if you're in the process or buying or selling.

Behemoth

Joined: 01 Dec 2004
Posts: 19023
Location: Leeds

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 9:03 am Post subject:

Land registry info:

"London house prices fall as market in England and Wales remains flat

London house prices experienced a greater fall than any other region in October, according to the latest monthly figures from Land Registry.

October's House Price Index shows that prices in London fell 0.6 per cent, while the market in England and Wales as a whole demonstrated a slight increase of 0.1 per cent.

The average house price for England and Wales now stands at �184,346; in London the figure is �351,039. For more information and to view the latest statistical release visit https://www.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices"

jema
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Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 28251
Location: escaped from Swindon

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 9:16 am Post subject:
I think it is long overdue, okay there is a major supply and demand issue pushing on prices, but there is a point at which you wonder how can it be feasable for anyone to get on the housing ladder, and in a large part of the Country we seem to have got well beyond that point.

marigold

Joined: 02 Sep 2005
Posts: 12458
Location: West Sussex

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 9:21 am Post subject:
0.8% a sharp tumble??? WTF would they call an 8% drop? Or an 18% drop? You had me all excited for a moment there .

Behemoth

Joined: 01 Dec 2004
Posts: 19023
Location: Leeds

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 9:23 am Post subject:
I've just had a look at the profile by property type for West Yorkshire. it shows that prices are continuing to rise for family homes (lack of supply), is slowing for terraces (many small ones over priced) and is falling for flats (oversupplied).

Treacodactyl
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Joined: 28 Oct 2004
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Location: Jumping on the bandwagon of opportunism

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 9:37 am Post subject:

marigold wrote:

0.8% a sharp tumble??? WTF would they call an 8% drop? Or an 18% drop?

You had me all excited for a moment there

That's 0.8% in a month so about 10% annualised although who knows what's going to happen next month. My guess is things are going to be volatile over the next few months.

bingo

Joined: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 4401
Location: The Games Room normally!

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 10:38 am Post subject:
I would welcome a slump in prices, we sold our flat a year ago and are in rented for the time being.

dougal

Joined: 15 Jan 2005
Posts: 7184
Location: South Kent

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 10:57 am Post subject:

Entirely apart from any individual's personal considerations, it would appear that the 'economic consensus' is that it would be a very bold move to plan on the basis of house prices continuing to rise at recent rates.

There's a nasty bit of economic tightrope walking ahead.
Cut interest rates and the currency value falls, making all imports - and that includes energy, more expensive. Rising inflation and falling real asset values is not a happy prospect.

Andy B

Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Posts: 3920
Location: Brum

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 12:09 pm Post subject:

jema wrote:

I think it is long overdue, okay there is a major supply and demand issue pushing on prices, but there is a point at which you wonder how can it be feasable for anyone to get on the housing ladder, and in a large part of the Country we seem to have got well beyond that point.

I understands there are over 100 thousand empty properties in the UK.

Jb

Joined: 08 Jun 2005
Posts: 7761
Location: 91� N

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 12:19 pm Post subject:

Andy B wrote:

jema wrote:

I understand there are over 100 thousand empty properties in the UK.

In the parts of the country where people want to live? It's not much use to someone struggling to pay a mortgage on a flat in the home counties to know that they could buy a detached house in Lanark.

Andy B

Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Posts: 3920
Location: Brum

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 12:29 pm Post subject:

JB wrote:

Andy B wrote:

jema wrote:

I understand there are over 100 thousand empty properties in the UK.

In the parts of the country where people want to live? It's not much use to someone struggling to pay a mortgage on a flat in the home counties to know that they could buy a detached house in Lanark.

I understand that its a fairly even distribution across the whole of the UK, but mostly centered in and around the big cities. Who exactly are all these people needing new homes when birth rates in the UK have been dropping for a number of years, to only very recently to have marginally increased. In other words we have a static population, even taking into account people living longer, but we need hundreds of thousands of new homes. For who exactly!?

Jb

Joined: 08 Jun 2005
Posts: 7761
Location: 91� N

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 12:34 pm Post subject:

Andy B wrote:

UK population may double by 2081

The main driving factors are fertility, longevity and immigration.

Andy B

Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Posts: 3920
Location: Brum

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 12:43 pm Post subject:

JB wrote:

Andy B wrote:

UK population may double by 2081

The main driving factors are fertility, longevity and immigration.

I notice the 4 million extras over 75 years if Birth rates stay pretty much the same and immigration is properly controled. And as the later has become such a political hot potato i suspect it will.
I suspect this is another of the many scare stories which we will never be able to prove wrong until we have long gone beyong the dates and numbers they mention.

OP

Joined: 28 Jul 2006
Posts: 4661
Location: Yorkshire

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 12:54 pm Post subject:

Regardless of the causes, there is no doubt the government wants to build massive numbers of new houses - here in Yorkshire they say 20K new houses per year starting right away. To put that in perspective, that will be about 1m extra people in the region within 10 years - and the current population is only 5m.

If this house-building happens then clearly the extra supply will bring down the prices for everyone. However I suspect it won't happen because there seems to be no money to pay for the infrastructure (especially roads, and health and care services) necessary for this massive expansion.

Treacodactyl
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Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 25795
Location: Jumping on the bandwagon of opportunism

Posted: Thu Nov 29, 07 1:00 pm Post subject:

orangepippin wrote:

However I suspect it won't happen because there seems to be no money to pay for the infrastructure (especially roads, and health and care services) necessary for this massive expansion.

Which leads me nicely to this question. It's often mentioned that just increasing the size and number of roads just causes more people to use them and just as much congestion after a few years. Surely the same will happen for housing? The more you build the more people will want them?

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